New CENA SAF Outlook 2026 published
Global SAF market trends through 2030: The new CENA SAF Outlook analyses production volumes and the policy framework and assesses the feasibility of meeting European SAF mandates
The new “CENA SAF Outlook 2026: Production Volumes, Feedstocks and Resilience in SAF Production” shows that European SAF mandates are expected to be met by bio-SAF produced in Europe up to 2030. At the same time, the announced production volumes fall short of the policy targets for the years after 2030 – particularly for synthetic aviation fuels (e-SAF).
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are the key to decarbonising the aviation sector in the long term – particularly for medium- and long-haul flights. The findings show that, to speed up the market ramp-up of SAF production, there is a need for a reliable regulatory framework at EU level, government investment incentives, and risk mitigation mechanisms, particularly for early-stage SAF projects.
Key findings:
- A maximum global production capacity of 33.7 million tonnes of SAF has been announced for 2030
- Of this, around 22 million tonnes can currently be realistically expected
- The e-SAF quota from 2030 onwards is not yet secured
- Announced global production volumes are falling despite an increasing number of projects
- High investment risks, regulatory uncertainties and a lack of off-take agreements are slowing down the ramp-up of e-SAF
- Government guarantees and structural hedging mechanisms for SAF projects – for example via intermediary models – can reduce investment risks and provide planning certainty
Further information and the full report are available at:
https://www.cena-hessen.de/en/projects/saf-outlook/
The CENA SAF Outlook is created on behalf of the Hessian Ministry of Economics, Energy, Transport, Housing and Rural Affairs.
