New analysis published: CENA SAF-Outlook 2025-2030
Outlook for global SAF production until 2030 - focus on feasibility and challenges in the SAF market
The new “CENA SAF Outlook 2025-2030: Volumes, Technologies and Marktes for Sustainable Aviation Fuels” shows that around 35 million tonnes of SAF can be produced worldwide by 2030 - the SAF quota applicable in the EU thus appears to be achievable, primarily through biofuels. The fulfillment of the quota for synthetic fuels (e-SAF), on the other hand, is not yet assured.
This year's CENA SAF Outlook analyzes the globally announced production volumes of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) by 2030 and assesses their feasibility based on project progress. It also compares supply with current and announced demand and assesses whether the EU's mandatory SAF quotas (ReFuelEU Aviation) can be met.
The conclusion: there is progress - but also an urgent need for action to drive SAF production and, in particular, e-SAF production forward.
The most important results:
- The EU SAF quotas of 2% from 2025 and 6% from 2030 are likely to be achievable.
- The e-SAF sub-quota of 1.2% from 2030 is not yet feasible with current capacities, there is a need for action here.
- The announced global production volumes will increase to around 35 million tonnes of SAF in 2030 - 0.4 million tonnes of which will come from Germany.
- The announced SAF purchase quantities by airlines (0.5 million tonnes) are well below the EU requirement of 3.1 million tonnes.
- Biogenic processes such as HEFA dominate SAF production with a share of around 80%.
Further information and the full report are available at:
