Online event on the CENA SAF-Outlook 2026

One hour, many perspectives and one key challenge: turning announced SAF capacity into a robust and reliable market. At our online event on the ‘CENA SAF-Outlook 2026: Volumes, Feedstocks and Resilience’, we were joined by around 90 participants in discussing current developments in the SAF market and what is needed to ensure a reliable ramp-up of sustainable aviation fuels.

Dr. Florian Zenglein (HTAI / CENA Hessen) presented key findings from the latest CENA SAF-Outlook. Our analysis brings together regulatory developments with the announced and realistically expected production volumes and shows where the SAF market stands today.

Download: Presentation slides in german

Findings and implications:

- Announced production volumes vs. realized outputs: The number of SAF projects is rising worldwide – while the average announced production volume per project is falling. 65 per cent of the capacity announced for 2030 is still in the early stages of development. It is crucial that these projects are actually realized.

- Technologies and production pathways: Biogenic pathways, particularly HEFA, continue to dominate globally. In the case of e-SAF, however, the comparatively lower level of technological maturity, together with high investment and financing costs, pose key challenges to scaled-up production.

- Planning and investment certainty: There is a need for reliable framework conditions, viable business models and suitable mechanisms for amortization, particularly for early-stage projects. Commitment to SAF mandates provides a long-term guarantee of reliable demand for SAF.

- Feedstock availability and resilience: Given limited feedstocks, potential competition for their use and existing reliance on imports, resilient supply chains are becoming increasingly important. Diversifying feedstock use can reduce dependencies and thereby strengthen resilience in fuel production and supply.

The discussion has shown that SAF targets remain ambitious – which makes it even more crucial to create the conditions for the market to continue its growth.

Many thanks to all participants for their interest, the many questions and the lively discussion!

The CENA SAF Outlook 2026 can be accessed here.

The CENA SAF Outlook is produced on behalf of the Hessian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Energy, Transportation, Housing and Rural Areas (HMWVW).

Download: Presentation slides in german